The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has maintained the key interest rate at 13.5%.

As noted in the Central Bank's press release, "the economy continues to experience upward pressure on inflation due to high consumer and investment activity, as well as changes in the supply of certain goods and services."

It has been stated that it is necessary to maintain "relatively tight monetary conditions" to ensure a sustainable decrease in inflation and to achieve a medium-term target of 5%.

"Based on forecasts of macroeconomic development and expectations regarding inflation factors, the Central Bank's board has decided to keep the key interest rate at 13.5% per annum," the press release states.

In September, the annual rate of overall inflation stood at 10.5%, unchanged from the previous quarter. The dynamics of core inflation have shifted to an upward trend due to high consumer demand, the transfer of liberalized tariffs and fuel prices into service costs, and rising prices for certain food products, reaching 7.1% year-on-year in September.

Average prices for fruits and vegetables continue to decline, which is one of the factors contributing to the decrease in overall inflation. Weekly observations in October indicate relative price stability for consumer goods, while monthly changes are forming below the levels of the corresponding period last year.

In the last quarter of 2024, influenced by relatively tight monetary conditions, a decline in inflationary processes is expected, with overall inflation projected to be around 9.5% by year-end.

Given the emerging trends in economic growth, the real GDP growth rate is forecasted to be between 6-6.5% in 2024.

It is also added that, in the coming quarters, pro-inflationary risks may arise related to energy resource supplies and short-term price fluctuations, disruptions in the supply of certain goods, and the persistence of relatively high prices for services.

“Under any circumstances, the Central Bank will continue to implement a monetary policy aimed at achieving the inflation target of 5%, paying special attention to the balance of supply and demand in the economy, inflation expectations, and the pace of structural reforms,” the regulator's message emphasizes.

The next meeting of the Central Bank's board to review the key interest rate is scheduled for December 12.